Please see NYTimes Opinion piece that references a Duke/Ohio State study on white working class voters
Realigning elections reflect a significant change in party platforms, ideology or a shift in demographic support for particular parties. For example, the 1932 FDR victory created the New Deal coalition that included a large part of the white working class. This group included many union members especially in Rust Belt states that are often pivotal in presidential elections. As a result of President Trump's 2016 victory white working class voters have come under increasing scrutiny. One telling statistic reflected a shift from 2010 to 2018, in which whites without a college degree grew from 50 to 59 percent of the Republican Party's voters. This group tends to be more liberal economically, so Trump's promises to protect Medicare and Social Security also reveal the sentiment that Trump was relatively moderate compared to post 1980 national Republican candidates. The article is quite deep with a nuanced look at white non-college graduates in the upper two income quintiles as especially committed to the Republican party. Finally, the article attempts to contextualize the demographic changes by explaining the realignment of white voters as part of the tectonic shift from an industrial to a knowledge based economy. In response to the economic shift, demographics that formerly fell into the New Deal Democrat coalition shifted their political focus to "2nd dimension issues of citizenship, race and social governance." Ultimately, these trends are likely problematic for the Republicans as the changes in US demographics make white voters a smaller block.
Questions:
1. The article discusses non-college grad whites that are in the upper two income quintiles (above $77,000). Why would these groups be especially attracted to the Trump and the modern Republican Party?
2. Conversely, the article identified low income white college graduates as the most loyal white constituency. Why would this group lean heavily Democratic?
3. The article cites numerous other scholarly works and breaks down racial attitudes as well as church attendance as an indicator of voting behavior. What is one fact from the article that is especially relevant?
1. These groups would be especially attracted to Trump because he has given tax cuts to wealthy people, and these voters would favor his economic policies. Since it is becoming more knowledge based, their skills, in industries like construction and retail, could feel threatened, and Trump is encouraging this idea by saying that immigrants will steal their jobs. These groups feel protected by Trump.
ReplyDelete2. Low income white college graduates will lean toward the Democratic party because in an economy based on knowledge, they will be better equipped to enter the workforce and may be more motivated to work hard, especially so they can pay off their student loans. In college, these people are exposed to diverse ideas, and their principles may align more with the Democratic party.
3. One fact that is increasingly relevant is that Trump voters are “more likely to deny Whites have an advantage in America and expressed far more fear of other racial groups.” These are the people who voted in 2016, and they represent the ideals of the man in office. Many white Trump supporters are using hateful rhetoric, and are scared of anything that does not believe or look the same. This shows how important it is for people to be exposed to diverse backgrounds, and understand that different isn’t bad, especially in the wake of the mass shootings all spurred by white supremacism.
1. White non-college grad are attracted to President Trump because of his conservative economic mindset and agenda. He has tried to lower taxes for the upperclass and keep American jobs. His statements and efforts around immigrants has provided a feeling of safety for these struggling Americans.
ReplyDelete2. These groups mostly lean towards the Democratic party because their economic agenda are more beneficial towards them and a strong alignment in their beliefs in social issues. The GOP has been known for the same ideology and comes with it the belief of no change.
3. One face that I found interesting was that "Donald Trump as substantially more moderate than his party, and as more moderate than most Republican presidential candidates since 1980." When Trump first took the office many people believed Trump's ideas and mindset was almost extreme conservative while he was actually the most moderate Republican candidate according to the authors.
1. These groups would be particularly attracted to Trump and the modern Republican party, to put it simply, because they protect their economic interests. In an increasingly knowledge based society, people that have a high income but little education (like construction workers or shop owners), want more conservative economics because less redistribution of wealth will benefit them, especially when they have less valuable skills in a knowledge based society. Even though Trump is considered more of a moderate in terms of economics, his policies still tend to favor protecting against the redistribution of wealth, which is very attractive to high-income whites without a college degree. Liberal economic policy and the way society is structured today is starting to require a college degree to achieve success socially and economically and those that have achieved these two feats without a college degree are reacting against this trend and trying to protect themselves.
ReplyDeleteEducated, low income white voters swing toward the democratic party based off of their immediate interests. The economy is becoming increasingly knowledge based a college degree is important, but they are not in a financial situation comfortable enough to not have federal help. Educated, high paid students were conservative because they are more likely to want to immediate benefits of reduced taxes and limited government regulations. However, the low paid students need more support from government, and are thus more likely to swing liberal to increase their chances of getting that support.
ReplyDelete1. High income white voters without college degrees are more attracted to Trump because he agreed to protect Social Security and Medicare despite being conservative. Many of these voters, who are small business owners and shopkeepers, believe the economy favors knowledge and college degrees over skills. In general, high income white voters support liberal economic policies that they benefit from and as a result support the modern Republican Party.
ReplyDelete2. White voters with college degrees and low incomes are more liberal in terms of "first dimension" issues like economic policy and "secondary issues" including citizenship and race. Liberal views on secondary issues are associated with higher level education regardless of income. In addition, these voters benefit from a knowledge based economy rather than a skill based economy, which the Democratic party supports.
3. One fact from the article that is especially relevant is that religious Republican voters tend to be more moderate or liberal on issues involving race and citizenship. Despite the fact that religious voters are more liberal, they often vote for Republican candidates because they prioritize partisanship.
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ReplyDelete1. High income white voters without college degrees would be more supportive of Trump because they believe he'll protect their economic interests. In an economy based off knowledge, Trump appeals as someone who will keep their best interests at heart. He also appears to be more economically liberal, such as promising to protect Medicare and Social Security, which benefits this group especially. Kitschelt and Rehm from the NYT article argue that by Trump being more economically liberal and socially conservative, this "frees" them to vote for him without having any conflicting interests, say with Romney.
ReplyDelete2. In a knowledge based economy, educated low-income whites would support the Democratic Party because of the Democrats' economic agenda (such as being pro-union), and because having a college degree would be more beneficial in a knowledge-based economy. They also tend to be more liberal in their social viewpoints.
3. "Trump voters who attend church once a week or more, Ekins noted, 'are much more likely... to identify as a strong Republican. Partisanship,' she continued, 'can outweigh even core values'”. I think this is especially relevant today because we're increasingly seeing a disconnect among religious voters between religious values and partisan agenda. Christianity (being the religion followed by most Republicans) has messages of acceptance and tolerance, yet currently Trump's agenda seems to run against that message. This disconnect shows that values are not as strong as we think they are, and that partisanship drives our current political system.
One reason these groups would be especially attracted to Trump because they feel that they need to hold onto the wealth they have. They most likely hear the implications that the modern democratic party is becoming “socialist” that many conservative talking heads make and are driven towards trump because they believe he will protect their wealth. Another reason is because of a general distrust of college educated elites in this group drives them toward Trump’s populist rhetoric.
ReplyDelete1. Non-college white graduates who are in higher level income groups are more likely to be attracted to Trump and the Republican Party because they believe that the party will defend their interests. Specifically, Trump has made his stance very clear about supporting tax cuts for the wealthy. Trump has also said that he will protect Medicare and Social Security which is beneficial to skilled workers whose skills outweigh their education and benefit from these less conservative economic policies.
ReplyDelete1. These groups are attracted to Trump and the modern Republican party because of their economic interest. Trump tends to oppose progressive economic policies, which these groups favor because they feel as if he would protect their jobs from immigrants. The new liberal society also tends to favor those with a college degree.
ReplyDelete1. White individuals with high incomes and low education would be especially attracted to the Trump and modern Republican party because the policies greatly reflect their economic interests and beliefs. Because this group has a high income, they would be in favor of Trump's tax cuts to the wealthy as it would benefit them economically. In addition, in a world moving towards a knowledge-based economy, those with low education may fear this change, and therefore support the more conservative ideas against major changes and wealth redistribution. The article also stated that Trump supporters were "less empathetic (angered by racism)", possibly suggesting that this group is more likely to agree with Trump's immigration policies and opinions which both support many of their beliefs as well as appear to protect their jobs. A study in the article found that "second dimension" issues like these attitudes around race have become a strong influence on who voters side with, and this has frequently shown correlation with education levels.
ReplyDelete1. White voters in the low-education/high-income group tend to support Trump because they they believe he will make the best authoritarian non economic policies that will benefit them economically. Additionally, this demographic, made up of small business owners and shopkeepers, wants to protect their wealth by supporting conservative economic policies. Trump aligns with these ideals, for example, he maintains opposition to redistribution of wealth and high income taxes. Additionally, their lack of college education limits their job opportunities, which they feel are threatened by immigrants. As a result, they are more likely to support Trump due to his anti-immigration policies.
ReplyDelete2. Low income white college graduates lean heavily toward the Democratic party because they believe their economic interests are better supported. The Republican party supports the elite and wants to place restrictions on labor unions. However, white college graduates who have low incomes support labor unions because their interests are more represented. The Democratic party also supports increasing the minimum wage and providing more support and services for people with low income, which is why low income white college graduates support the Democratic party more.
ReplyDelete1. Non-college grad whites with high income are attracted to Trump and the modern Republican party because of their liberal economic interests. Trump supports tax cuts for the wealthy and wants to protect Medicaid and Social Security which benefit low-educated but skilled workers in an economy that favors education over skill. Additionally they feel threatened by immigrants who might take their low skill jobs, however Trump has made it clear that he will protect Americans' jobs and is against immigration because he also believes that they are stealing Americans' jobs which is reassuring for people these groups.
ReplyDeleteWhite Americans without a college degree would be more likely to support Trump and the modern Republican party because they believe they will best protect their interests. Primarily, this demographic does not want their wealth taken away. Therefore, they would support policies that don’t interfere much with individuals and their income, reducing taxes and wealth distribution. Additionally, whites with higher incomes and no college degrees probably have more manually, not intellectually, based jobs and would be more likely to fear immigrants taking their jobs. While this isn’t true for all members of this group, these Americans are more susceptible to Trump’s xenophobic and racist rhetoric because they didn’t gain the historical and cultural information that college can provide.
ReplyDeleteWhite Americans who are wealthy, but did not attend college are more likely to vote for the modern Republican Party because they favor policies that are geared towards their interests. Trump wants to give tax cuts to the rich, but he also wants to save Medicare and Social Security, which shows that not only does he support the rich, but also is more liberal than past Republicans. On the other hand, the majority of Trump supporters claim that they have religious affiliations and/or are proud of their white identity and feel that Trump and the new Republican Party will protect and respect that. They are afraid that immigrants will take this identity away, and even take their jobs from them along with their identity. Then they will have nothing left.
ReplyDeleteIndividuals who identify within a low-educated/high-income status are enticed by Trump and the Republican Party because Trump aligns with their economic interests. Trump ensures that his supporters, small business owners and shopkeepers, will maintain their wealth and status by avoiding progressive economic policies and favoring authoritarian noneconomic policies. In addition, our society today is transitioning so it is easier to attain a job and become successful with a college degree. This does not benefit non-college graduate whites and could inhibit future success. Therefore, they will continue to stay loyal to the Republican party as long as they stray from a Knowledge society.
ReplyDelete1. These specific groups of white non-college graduates would specifically be interested in Trump because they believe he will protect their economic interests and increase tax cuts and job openings. As non-graduate whites have less opportunities than graduate degrees to find jobs with a steady living wage, Trump's immigrants stealing jobs claim and his ideas of increasing jobs seemed very attractive to them, as the middle class.
ReplyDelete2. With knowledge about the nation's economic climate, white college graduates lean more on the Democratic Party plans and less on Trump because of how it would affect them in the long run. As these students are likely to be working in a living wage job with a high student debt, the Democratic economic plans would benefit them more over Trump's short-term plan.
3. One interesting fact right at the beginning of the article is how "In less than a decade, from 2010 to 2018, whites without a college degree grew from 50 to 59 percent of all the Republican Party’s voters, while whites with college degrees fell from 40 to 29 percent of the party’s voters." As the federal government has increased budgets on financial aid, colleges raise their tuition expense in order to be able to pay for financial aid programs. This goes back to effecting the people as more and more debt is acquired into both graduate and non-graduate students around the nation.
2. One reason that low-income white college students are the most loyal white constituency of the Democratic Party is because people with lower incomes (especially people who need help paying for college) tend to like the democrats' more involved economic policies. Democrats tend to prioritize government spending on social programs and welfare more than Republicans. The federal government already has programs to help lower-income students pay for college, and the 2020 Democratic candidates all plan to make college cheaper for students in general or for lower-income students. The 2020 Republican candidates, on the other hand, have thus far established plans for more conservative programs or no financial assistance for college-- policies which low-income white college students generally favor less.
ReplyDeleteIndividuals with low education and high incomes fear that, as a college degree increasingly becomes a prerequisite for success, their chances in life are shrinking. The technology boom of the late 1900s sparked the shift from an industrial to a knowledge economy, and as jobs become more and more competitive and require even more extensive information, you must have a college degree. Non-college whites view this economic shift as a threat to their way of life, and they see Trump and the modern Republican Party as the political group that would counteract this shift and protect their wealth through less progressive economic policies like low taxes. In addition, since these voters are relatively uneducated, they do not possess as much knowledge of the institutions of our society and are thus less aware of structural inequalities. As Smith's analysis of the racism scale FIRE notes, both feelings and knowledge influence political attitudes, and it is evident that these voters tend to draw more from their feelings since they cannot draw as much from their knowledge.
ReplyDelete- Danielle J.
DeleteLow income groups typically lean more democratic because of the liberal policies tend to support welfare. On the contrary, wealthier individuals would favor the regressive economic policies that the Republican party favors. The Republican policies favors tax cuts for richer individuals which follow the general trend of regressive economic policies meanwhile the Democrats would usually favor policies such as increasing the minimum wage which benefits the low income individuals more.
ReplyDelete#2 Low-income, highly educated Whites have consistently supported Democrats because they are the group that is likely to view the increased difficulty in economic mobility due to the wealth gap with greatest disdain. In prior generations, a college degree provided a reasonable guarantee that one would enjoy moderate financial success at a minimum. Nowadays, graduating from a university is a prerequisite for entry into the skilled labor market that does not guarantee stable employment, not to mention a solid income. As a result, these individuals look towards progressive reformers to address and resolve the problems with an economic system that seems to no longer reward strong work-ethic, education, and merit.
ReplyDelete2. I think this group makes for loyal democrats for two reasons. Firstly, college educated citizens tend to be liberal. Secondly, because they are lower income, they tend to benefit from the social safety nets that democratic candidates run on.
ReplyDelete